Trailing Liabilities Crush Technology Sector Profits
Thursday, October 23rd, 2008The expense of supporting a product in the field can easily bankrupt unprepared companies. Every sale carries with it the liabilities of breakdowns, returns, parts inventories, legal action, call centers, training, etc, liabilities which lag - often by more than a financial year - the actual sale. Holding back a percentage of each sale to pay for those past sins is a sensible business practice, otherwise you’ll find yourself scrambling to cover old debts with current money, kind of like today’s big banks.
There is a method to the madness. The real challenge is knowing exactly how much of each sale to reserve. If you don’t hold back enough, you’ll run out of money before all the liabilities fade away. If you hold back too much, that’s money you could have taken to the bottom line today. Like walking a tightrope, balance is everything. Consumer products like cellular handsets carry post-sale liabilities of between 2-4%. Such products are relatively easy to establish reserves for because there is so much history and the technology typically changes incrementally. Also, lifespans are short; a year or two under warranty and about three years total, so even if mistakes are made they don’t haunt you forever. Fixed products like transmitters, large machinery, telephone central offices, all live much longer, in the tens of years, which presents a totally different scale of the problem.
Reserves should overlay liabilities as precisely as possible. Holdbacks should be just enough to cover trailing costs, no more. What’s the formula? Established OEMs with plenty of experience usually get it right. New companies sometimes forget reserves altogether. Big mistake. . . Getting the right answer is easy for established businesses with a history in a particular technology. For example, every Ethernet router manufacturer knows, almost to the day, the MTBF of a 16-port hub. On the other side, however, emerging technologies can be a real guessing game. In that case the trick is to constantly monitor every aspect of post-sale cost during ramp-up, then respond fast with adjustments in reserves, usually on a month-by-month basis. Obviously, step function changes in sales volume can mess up the best of plans on either side of the formula; Small sales mean not enough data. Big sales mean it’s too late, the horse is already out of the barn.
Growth in shipment volume often hides reserve problems. For example, when the number of units shipped every month is on a sharp uptick, it’s easy to cover fiscal sloppiness from the past because so few units fall into the ‘not-covered’ category. Conversely, however, as a product nears its end-of-life and shipments drop, mistakes from the past blow up exponentially. Now you’re in the unenviable position of trying to pay off yesterday’s big mistakes with today’s tiny money. When this happens, desperate managers often add insult to injury by cannibalizing revenue from new products to fund debt on old stuff that is no longer even sold. Bad plan. . . Good financial control implies rigid segregation of the P&L at the product level.
Basic quality discipline is an easy way for companies to mitigate post-sale risk. Institutionalizing constant feedback and corrective action, as well as keeping the senior leadership involved in post-sale activities, sets the stage for fast and effective response. Being able to correctly identify the root cause of a post-sale problem, and then being able to negatively impact the incentive pay of those responsible, usually gets the product steered back on course. Metrics are important. It’s also important that no more than five post-sale issues be aggressively pushed back into the enterprise at any one time. Fatigue and confusion kills corrective action when too many problems crowd everyone’s plate.
The worst scenario occurs when financial oversight breaks down and senior managers, especially those who know they’re likely to move on, are permitted to take reserves to the bottom line well ahead of time in order to distort the current P&L, to fake better financial performance. Mature organizations require sign-off from the post-sale leadership and CFO to take reserves, particularly in ‘Product Managed’ organizations.
Strategically, the ideal situation is one in which a post-sale revenue stream is developed to offset trailing liabilities. Opportunities abound to sell extended warranty, upgrades, downloads, special offers, insurance and more. Infrastructure businesses are particularly adept at selling services, usually in the thirty percent range. Also, dollars from sold services are amplified by good product quality, and vice versa. A winning strategy builds even greater value by bundling services into complete care packages for whole businesses, not just one or two boxes.
From an accounting standpoint, treating non-device sales as a separate P&L, fed by both warranty reserves and sold services, sets the stage for running post-sale as a real business. Too often, service activities are treated as an ugly baby cost center, a necessary evil that gets the first ax in tough times. Operating post-sale as a business unit, decoupled from tampering by product managers, lets skilled customer service managers build real value that adds to the total portfolio.
Good post-sale business execution translates directly into new product sales. When customers are happy - doesn’t matter why - they come back. Wrapping a suite of non-device values around a commodity product like a cell phone differentiates you in a tough market. These days, with some consumer electronic margins below 10%, OEMs can’t afford to make post-sale mistakes. Every penny counts. Brand equity hinges on your product standing out. The post-sale customer experience, in many cases, is what makes the difference.